Let’s keep up the good work! As we move through this crisis together, we are affecting the curve. All of our efforts from increased testing to social distancing and business shutdowns, each designed to slow the growth of the virus and prevent more people from being infected have begun to take effect.
5EA has been downloading and examining the number of confirmed cases each day. Our initial results are showing signs that we are making very good progress toward the first goal which is to slow the growth of the curve. We predict that by Tuesday 3/25 the impact on the growth rate should be significant and consistent enough to see a consistent downward trend in the growth rate, assuming no new clusters appear and government actions and compliance remain in place.
The growth rate of confirmed cases in NY spiked on Thursday with a rate of approximately 1.87, and steadily moved down to 1.37 Saturday. The numbers reported Sunday at 4:15PM from NY showed the growth rate at 1.29, a significant downward reduction in new cases, a likely indication that the efforts are having an effect in NY.
Overall for the United States, we saw the number in the same period move to 1.37 as of Saturday; however, with the NY numbers moving downward, the state with the largest number of cases, we expect the downward trend to continue. Especially as other areas of the country practice social distancing, and lockdown businesses. Localities may still see an increase since compliance with local mandates is critical, and these flare-ups must be monitored closely.
It’s too early to tell when we will hit the peak, but examining the growth of the virus, we believe the peak will occur around or before April 20th. This downward trend in growth should continue as social distancing and reduction of interpersonal contact measures are enforced, although there is no way to definitively know. A number of factors could adversely affect these numbers including new outbreak clusters somewhere in the country, communities not following local social distancing mandates, or a significant spike in testing or reporting of testing.
We want everyone to know that to continue this decline, everyone must work to flatten the curve. Let’s continue to watch and monitor what’s happening and do our part.
All of our data was based on publicly available information provided by the NYS department of health, CDC and Johns Hopkins.